Pakistan is currently ranked fifth: Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan and the West Indies have a percentage currently between 50 and 53.33. The advantage for Pakistan is that its remaining two series are at home: three Tests against England and two Tests against New Zealand. If they win all five, their percentage will jump to 69.05. If they collect 48 points from those two series (four wins and one loss), their percentage will be 61.9%.
South Africa are currently sitting at the top of the WTC table with 71.43% points, but they have some tough tasks ahead: three Tests each in England and Australia, followed by their six series against the West Indies for this cycle. There will be two home tests to do.
Even if they win both the Tests against West Indies, they will still need more points to bring their final percentage to 60. For example, if they lose 1-2 each of those overseas series and beat West Indies 2-0, they will end up on 60%. If they win one of those series 2-1 and lose the other 1-2, they will jump to 66.67, which will put them in the mix to qualify.
Australia have nine Tests to go in this cycle, the most among all teams. Five of them are at home, in two series – two Tests against West Indies and three Tests against South Africa. However, their away series will be their biggest challenge – the four Tests against India.
If Australia wins all five at home and loses all four at the hands of India, it will fall to 63.16 and India will overtake them if they win all their remaining six Tests. If Australia manages a win-loss record 6-3 in those nine matches, their percentage will rise to 68.42, which should put them in a strong position to qualify.
India are currently ranked fourth but they are likely to score a lot of points and move up the table in their last two series of this cycle against Bangladesh (two Tests away) and Australia (four Tests at home).
If India wins six Test matches, their win percentage will increase to 68.06, which will be higher than Australia’s score, even if they win their five home Tests. This means that if India and Pakistan win all their remaining matches and if South Africa lose, it could be an all-subcontinental WTC final at Lord’s in 2023.